Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for VICTOR-16
Off-shore
22 Jan 2016 18 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone VICTOR-16 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 213 km/h
    Maximum storm surge
    Vulnerability --

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 56 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 213 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      56 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 99000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 14 Jan 2016 18:00 185 --- No people
        Green 2 15 Jan 2016 06:00 167 --- No people
        Green 3 15 Jan 2016 18:00 213 --- No people
        Green 4 16 Jan 2016 06:00 213 --- No people
        Green 5 16 Jan 2016 18:00 204 --- No people Niue
        Green 6 17 Jan 2016 06:00 167 --- No people
        Green 7 17 Jan 2016 18:00 148 --- No people
        Green 8 18 Jan 2016 06:00 148 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 9 18 Jan 2016 18:00 167 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 10 19 Jan 2016 06:00 148 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 11 19 Jan 2016 18:00 120 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 12 20 Jan 2016 06:00 120 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 13 20 Jan 2016 18:00 120 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 14 21 Jan 2016 06:00 120 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 15 21 Jan 2016 18:00 93 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 16 22 Jan 2016 06:00 74 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 17 22 Jan 2016 18:00 56 No people No people

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 14 Jan 2016 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -14, -165.2
          GREEN
          		 2 15 Jan 2016 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -14.5, -166.2
          GREEN
          		 3 15 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -14.6, -166.3
          GREEN
          		 4 16 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -15.1, -166.2
          GREEN
          		 5 16 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -15, -166.7
          GREEN
          		 6 17 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -16.2, -166.4
          GREEN
          		 7 17 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -17.4, -166.4
          GREEN
          		 8 18 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -19.1, -166.1
          GREEN
          		 9 18 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -20.1, -166.2
          GREEN
          		 10 19 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 1 148 no people 2200 people -20.8, -167.1 Niue
          GREEN
          		 11 19 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 2200 people -21.1, -167.9 Niue
          GREEN
          		 12 20 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 1 120 no people 2200 people -21.6, -168.9 Niue
          GREEN
          		 13 20 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 2200 people -21.5, -169.5 Niue
          GREEN
          		 14 21 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -21.5, -171
          GREEN
          		 15 21 Jan 2016 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 90000 people -21.6, -172.4 Tonga
          GREEN
          		 16 22 Jan 2016 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 97000 people -22, -174.3 Tonga
          GREEN
          		 17 22 Jan 2016 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22.9, -176.1
          GREEN
          		 17 23 Jan 2016 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24.6, -176.7
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Provinces

          Country Region Province
          Tonga Tonga
          Niue Niue

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Nuku'alofa Tonga Capital 24000 people
          Alofi Niue Capital <1000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0 m

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 22 Jan 2016 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)